Global energy demand correlates very closely with economic growth. As the global economy came to a sudden standstill in the last quarter energy use was impacted. Supplies quickly exceeded demand for both crude oil and natural gas.
Crude Oil Prices Remain in ‘Super Contango’ The crude oil futures markets are in a rare condition some have called ‘super contango’ - a condition where prices twelve or twenty-four months in the future are much higher than the current spot price for crude oil (charts courtesy of Financial Times).The super contango is most likely being fueled by the credit crisis and the need of companies to produce as much product as they physically can to generate cash. The contango situation would normally create an incentive to delay production to a future date, and generally supports upward pressure on short term prices as such production is delayed.
What the super contango condition telegraphs, according to some analysts like Donald Coxe, is the fact that market participants realize that crude oil will not be in excess supply for long. As the global economy regains its footing demand will increase, and so will prices, all as reflected in the crude oil futures curve.
...Short term, over the next year, assuming no geopolitical unrest or internal disruptions in major exporting countries (including Russia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria and Mexico) energy prices may remain below what we have seen the last few years.
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